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Necaxa vs Tigres Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Clausura · Matchday 15 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 23:00

Necaxa

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Tigres

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-110.1%0-26.1%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.7%1-112.9%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.8%2-18.2%2-24.9%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.9%3-13.5%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 28.2% 3.55 +35.6%

Draw 27.1% 28.2% 3.55 -3.8%

Away win 34.7% 50.5% 1.98 -31.3%

Over 2.5 45.1% 55.6% 1.80 -18.8%

Over 3.5 23.8% 33.9% 2.95 -29.8%

BTTS 50.4% 61.7% 1.62 -18.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 16%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob50.4%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 45% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.9%

#2 1–0 10.7%

#3 0–1 10.1%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Necaxa1.3

Tigres1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NECAXA · PPG 1.29

TIGRES · PPG 1.29

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Necaxa (H) 38.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +35.6%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -3.8%

Tigres (A) 34.7%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -31.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Necaxa face Tigres in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Necaxa a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Tigres 35%, so Necaxa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Necaxa and 1.2 for Tigres (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Necaxa are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.29 for Tigres. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +35.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Necaxa vs Tigres Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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