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Stjarnan vs KA Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 17:00

Stjarnan

PPG 0.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

KA Akureyri

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.6%0-22.7%0-31.9%0-4+1.5%1 1-02.9%1-16.0%1-26.2%1-34.3%1-4+3.6%2 2-03.3%2-16.9%2-27.2%2-34.9%2-4+4.1%3 3-02.6%3-15.3%3-25.5%3-33.8%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-15.3%4+-25.5%4+-33.8%4+-4+3.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 2.00 -6.6%

Draw 20.8% 4.00 -10.1%

Away win 32.6% 2.80 -8.7%

Over 2.5 72.1% 1.30 -6.3%

Over 3.5 52.9% 1.80 -4.8%

BTTS 68.6% 1.28 -12.2%

Home Over 1.5 60.6% 1.50 -9.1%

Away Over 1.5 50.0% 1.77 -11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.8%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob68.6%

H 47% / xG 2.3-2.1 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.2%

#2 2–1 6.9%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 1–2 6.2%

#5 3–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stjarnan2.3

KA Akureyri2.1

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.1% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

STJARNAN · PPG 0.57

KA AKUREYRI · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.40) strong but model favors Home (P=46.7%)

Win probability 1X2

Stjarnan (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -6.6%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.1%

KA Akureyri (A) 32.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stjarnan face KA Akureyri in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stjarnan a 47% chance, the draw 21% and KA Akureyri 33%, so Stjarnan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Stjarnan and 2.1 for KA Akureyri (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stjarnan are averaging 0.57 points per game versus 1.40 for KA Akureyri. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.1%.

Stjarnan vs KA Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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