Today / Iceland - Úrvalsdeild / Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik

Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 17:00

Keflavik

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

KR Reykjavik

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 77.5% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-12.1%0-23.4%0-33.6%0-4+6.3%1 1-01.2%1-13.9%1-26.2%1-36.6%1-4+11.5%2 2-01.1%2-13.6%2-25.7%2-36.0%2-4+10.5%3 3-00.7%3-12.2%3-23.5%3-33.6%3-4+6.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.5%4+-22.4%4+-32.5%4+-4+4.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 21.0% 3.65 -14.0%

Draw 18.1% 4.50 -11.1%

Away win 60.9% 1.67 +1.7%

Over 2.5 77.5% 1.22 -5.5%

Over 3.5 52.9% 1.62 -14.3%

BTTS 68.6% 1.25 -14.2%

Home Over 1.5 53.5% 1.85 -1.0%

Away Over 1.5 75.6% 1.30 -1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.8%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 76%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)3.2 BTTS prob68.6%

A 61% / xG 1.8-3.2 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 6.6%

#2 1–2 6.2%

#3 2–3 6.0%

#4 2–2 5.7%

#5 1–4 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Keflavik1.8

KR Reykjavik3.2

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.5% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KEFLAVIK · PPG 1.00

KR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.80

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.80) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Keflavik (H) 21.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -14.0%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -11.1%

KR Reykjavik (A) 60.9%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Keflavik face KR Reykjavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Keflavik a 21% chance, the draw 18% and KR Reykjavik 61%, so KR Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Keflavik and 3.2 for KR Reykjavik (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Keflavik are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.80 for KR Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +16.6%.

Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iceland - Úrvalsdeild Predictions