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Hafnarfjordur vs IBV Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 17:00

Hafnarfjordur

PPG 0.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

IBV

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.1%0-23.7%0-32.8%0-4+2.8%1 1-02.7%1-16.2%1-27.2%1-35.6%1-4+5.6%2 2-02.7%2-16.2%2-27.2%2-35.5%2-4+5.6%3 3-01.8%3-14.1%3-24.7%3-33.7%3-4+3.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-13.2%4+-23.7%4+-32.9%4+-4+2.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 2.10 -27.3%

Draw 21.7% 3.75 -11.2%

Away win 43.6% 2.80 +22.1%

Over 2.5 69.9% 1.42 -0.7%

Over 3.5 48.3% 2.10 +1.4%

BTTS 68.6% 1.36 -6.7%

Home Over 1.5 54.4% 1.67 -9.2%

Away Over 1.5 69.5% 1.93 +34.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.8%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob68.6%

A 44% / xG 2.0-2.3 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.2%

#2 2–2 7.2%

#3 1–1 6.2%

#4 2–1 6.2%

#5 1–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hafnarfjordur2.0

IBV2.3

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.9% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HAFNARFJORDUR · PPG 0.25

IBV · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: POOR form (0.80) vs Home POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Hafnarfjordur (H) 34.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -27.3%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.2%

IBV (A) 43.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hafnarfjordur face IBV in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hafnarfjordur a 35% chance, the draw 22% and IBV 44%, so IBV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Hafnarfjordur and 2.3 for IBV (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hafnarfjordur are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 0.80 for IBV. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +48.5%.

Hafnarfjordur vs IBV Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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