Cruz Azul vs Tijuana Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Mexico - Liga MX Clausura - 15 Estadio Azteca· Puebla Saturday, April 18, 2026 23:00

Cruz Azul PPG 2.50

1-1 HIT CS4

Tijuana PPG 1.43

Home· -5.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Cruz Azul face Tijuana in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cruz Azul a 68% chance, the draw 20% and Tijuana 12%, so Cruz Azul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Cruz Azul and 0.7 for Tijuana (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cruz Azul are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.43 for Tijuana. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 67.8%

Odds: 1.39 EV: -5.8%

Draw 20.0%

Odds: 4.60 EV: -8.0%

Away 12.2%

Odds: 7.60 EV: -7.3%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.0% Odds: 1.50 -23.5%

Over 3.5 28.9% Odds: 2.25 -35.0%

BTTS 44.0% Odds: 1.67 -26.5%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 1-1 ✔

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Cruz Azul

2.00

Tijuana

0.71

Model SuggestionHome -5.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -5.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5/Under 47%

BTTS/No 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 15.2%

Bet Hit 60% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away AVERAGE (1.43) - Strong consensus