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Cruz Azul vs Tijuana Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Clausura - 15 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 23:00

Cruz Azul

PPG 2.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Tijuana

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-14.7%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.3%1-19.4%1-23.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.3%2-19.4%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.9%3-16.3%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-15.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% 71.9% 1.39 -5.8%

Draw 20.0% 21.7% 4.60 -8.0%

Away win 12.2% 13.2% 7.60 -7.3%

Over 2.5 51.0% 66.7% 1.50 -23.5%

Over 3.5 28.9% 44.4% 2.25 -35.0%

BTTS 44.0% 59.9% 1.67 -26.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 16.3%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.0%

H 68% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.3%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 1–1✓ 9.4%

#5 3–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cruz Azul2.0

Tijuana0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUZ AZUL · PPG 2.50

TIJUANA · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away AVERAGE (1.43) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cruz Azul (H) 67.8%

ODDS 1.39 · IMPLIED 71.9% EV -5.8%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -8.0%

Tijuana (A) 12.2%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV -7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cruz Azul face Tijuana in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cruz Azul a 68% chance, the draw 20% and Tijuana 12%, so Cruz Azul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Cruz Azul and 0.7 for Tijuana (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cruz Azul are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.43 for Tijuana. This match finished 1-1.

Cruz Azul vs Tijuana Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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