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Vitoria vs Corinthians Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 12 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 23:00

Vitoria

PPG 2.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Corinthians

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

// Model verdict

Home 43% chance

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 37.7% — a clear edge.

+47.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-18.4%0-22.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.0%1-111.3%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.4%2-17.5%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.0%3-13.3%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-11.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% 37.7% 2.65 +47.9%

Draw 28.5% 33.6% 2.98 -15.1%

Away win 15.6% 35.7% 2.80 -56.3%

Over 2.5 29.6% 40.0% 2.50 -26.0%

Over 3.5 12.5% 20.0% 5.00 -37.5%

BTTS 31.7% 50.0% 2.00 -36.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob31.7%

H 56% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.0%

#2 0–0✓ 15.0%

#3 2–0 13.4%

#4 1–1 11.3%

#5 0–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vitoria1.3

Corinthians0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.6% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VITORIA · PPG 2.40

CORINTHIANS · PPG 1.20

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

43%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=55.8%

Win probability 1X2

Vitoria (H) 55.8%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +47.9%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -15.1%

Corinthians (A) 15.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -56.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vitoria face Corinthians in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vitoria a 56% chance, the draw 28% and Corinthians 16%, so Vitoria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vitoria and 0.6 for Corinthians (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vitoria are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.20 for Corinthians. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +47.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Vitoria vs Corinthians Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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