Today / Australia - Victoria NPL / South Melbourne vs Green Gully
South Melbourne vs Green Gully Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL
Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 05:30
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 59 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 58% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%
Form & verdict
SOUTH MELBOURNE · PPG 0.75
GREEN GULLY · PPG 0.33
Home slight advantage: POOR (0.75) > Away POOR (0.33)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
South Melbourne face Green Gully in Australia - Victoria NPL on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Melbourne a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Green Gully 20%, so South Melbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for South Melbourne and 0.9 for Green Gully (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Melbourne are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.33 for Green Gully. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.2%.