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South Melbourne vs Green Gully Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 05:30

South Melbourne

PPG 0.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Green Gully

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-14.5%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.0%1-19.4%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.0%3-16.8%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-15.8%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.2% 73.5% 1.36 -20.8%

Draw 22.0% 21.7% 4.60 +0.7%

Away win 19.8% 15.4% 6.50 +17.2%

Over 2.5 61.3% 64.5% 1.55 -5.0%

Over 3.5 37.3% 41.7% 2.40 -10.5%

BTTS 55.8% 57.8% 1.73 -3.5%

Home O1.5 60.6% 71.4% 1.40 -15.2%

Away O1.5 22.9% 26.3% 3.80 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 115 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 8.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.8%

H 58% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.5%

#2 1–1 9.4%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Melbourne2.1

Green Gully0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH MELBOURNE · PPG 0.75

GREEN GULLY · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.75) > Away POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

South Melbourne (H) 58.2%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -20.8%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +0.7%

Green Gully (A) 19.8%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Melbourne face Green Gully in Australia - Victoria NPL on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Melbourne a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Green Gully 20%, so South Melbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for South Melbourne and 0.9 for Green Gully (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Melbourne are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.33 for Green Gully. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.2%. This match finished 1-2.

South Melbourne vs Green Gully Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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