Today / Australia - Victoria NPL / St. Albans vs Melbourne C. B

St. Albans vs Melbourne C. B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 10:30

St. Albans

PPG 1.25 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Melbourne C. B

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-18.2%0-28.5%0-35.8%0-4+4.8%1 1-04.7%1-19.6%1-29.8%1-36.7%1-4+5.5%2 2-02.7%2-15.6%2-25.7%2-33.9%2-4+3.2%3 3-01.1%3-12.2%3-22.2%3-31.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 28.2% 2.45 -18.6%

Draw 21.8% 3.60 -12.9%

Away win 50.0% 2.45 +22.5%

Over 2.5 62.1% 1.55 -3.7%

Over 3.5 39.8% 2.38 -5.3%

BTTS 60.2% 1.45 -12.7%

Home Over 1.5 35.5% 1.95 -30.8%

Away Over 1.5 49.9% 1.95 -2.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -1.7%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob60.2%

A 50% / xG 1.2-2.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2✓ 8.5%

#4 0–1 8.2%

#5 1–3 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Albans1.2

Melbourne C. B2.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. ALBANS · PPG 1.25

MELBOURNE C. B · PPG 1.75

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.25) vs Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

St. Albans (H) 28.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -18.6%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.9%

Melbourne C. B (A) 50.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +22.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Albans face Melbourne C. B in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Albans a 28% chance, the draw 22% and Melbourne C. B 50%, so Melbourne C. B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for St. Albans and 2.1 for Melbourne C. B (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Albans are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.75 for Melbourne C. B. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +48.3%. This match finished 0-2.

St. Albans vs Melbourne C. B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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