Today / Australia - Victoria NPL / Hume City vs Green Gully

Hume City vs Green Gully Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 04:00

Hume City

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Green Gully

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-12.3%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.7%1-16.0%1-21.5%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.1%2-17.7%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.0%3-16.7%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-015.5%4+-17.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 70.8% 1.44 +1.9%

Draw 19.0% 4.20 -12.1%

Away win 10.2% 6.00 -23.3%

Over 2.5 61.5% 1.53 -5.9%

Over 3.5 39.9% 2.35 -6.2%

BTTS 48.5% 1.65 -20.0%

Win probability 1X2

Hume City (H) 70.8%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV +1.9%

Draw 19.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -12.1%

Green Gully (A) 10.2%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -23.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.5%

H 71% / xG 2.6-0.5 / O2.5 62% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.1%

#2 3–0 13.0%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 4–0 8.4%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hume City2.6

Green Gully0.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HUME CITY · PPG 2.00

GREEN GULLY · PPG 0.38

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.38) - Strong consensus

Match Preview & Prediction

Hume City face Green Gully in Australia - Victoria NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hume City a 71% chance, the draw 19% and Green Gully 10%, so Hume City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Hume City and 0.5 for Green Gully (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hume City are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.38 for Green Gully. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.3%. This match finished 3-2.

Hume City vs Green Gully Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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