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Heidelberg Utd vs Oakleigh C. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 09:30

Heidelberg Utd

PPG 1.75 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Oakleigh C.

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-18.8%0-27.7%0-34.4%0-4+2.9%1 1-06.3%1-111.0%1-29.5%1-35.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-03.9%2-16.8%2-25.9%2-33.4%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.6%3-12.8%3-22.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 29.9% 2.75 -10.7%

Draw 24.6% 3.45 -9.1%

Away win 45.6% 2.25 +2.6%

Over 2.5 61.5% 1.70 +4.5%

Over 3.5 39.8% 2.75 +9.4%

BTTS 61.6% 1.55 -4.5%

Home Over 1.5 42.9% 2.25 -3.5%

Away Over 1.5 49.7% 2.00 -0.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -1.7%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.6%

A 46% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.7%

#4 0–1✓ 8.8%

#5 2–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heidelberg Utd1.2

Oakleigh C.1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HEIDELBERG UTD · PPG 1.75

OAKLEIGH C. · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.75) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

Heidelberg Utd (H) 29.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -10.7%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.1%

Oakleigh C. (A) 45.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heidelberg Utd face Oakleigh C. in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heidelberg Utd a 30% chance, the draw 25% and Oakleigh C. 46%, so Oakleigh C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Heidelberg Utd and 1.7 for Oakleigh C. (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heidelberg Utd are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.25 for Oakleigh C.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Heidelberg Utd vs Oakleigh C. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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