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Heidelberg Utd vs Preston Lions Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 05:00

Heidelberg Utd

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Preston Lions

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-110.0%0-26.6%0-32.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.5%1-112.6%1-28.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.0%2-17.9%2-25.2%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.5%3-13.3%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 1.95 -30.6%

Draw 28.0% 3.55 -0.4%

Away win 36.4% 3.25 +18.3%

Over 2.5 51.2% 1.70 -13.0%

Over 3.5 29.0% 2.75 -12.2%

BTTS 55.9% 1.57 -12.2%

Win probability 1X2

Heidelberg Utd (H) 35.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -30.6%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -0.4%

Preston Lions (A) 36.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

D 28% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.5%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 0–1✓ 10.0%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heidelberg Utd1.3

Preston Lions1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HEIDELBERG UTD · PPG 2.00

PRESTON LIONS · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Match Preview & Prediction

Heidelberg Utd face Preston Lions in Australia - Victoria NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heidelberg Utd a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Preston Lions 36%, so Preston Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Heidelberg Utd and 1.3 for Preston Lions (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heidelberg Utd are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Preston Lions. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Heidelberg Utd vs Preston Lions Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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