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Dandenong T. vs Hume City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 07:00

Dandenong T.

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hume City

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-17.7%0-29.2%0-37.4%0-4+7.9%1 1-03.3%1-18.0%1-29.6%1-37.7%1-4+8.2%2 2-01.7%2-14.1%2-25.0%2-34.0%2-4+4.2%3 3-00.6%3-11.4%3-21.7%3-31.4%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 13.0% 5.75 -15.2%

Draw 19.2% 4.60 -7.0%

Away win 67.8% 1.40 -5.1%

Over 2.5 66.3% 1.45 -3.9%

Over 3.5 43.6% 2.15 -6.3%

BTTS 61.6% 1.60 -1.4%

Home Over 1.5 35.5% 3.20 +13.6%

Away Over 1.5 69.5% 1.36 -5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -1.7%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob61.6%

A 68% / xG 1.0-2.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.6%

#2 0–2 9.2%

#3 1–1 8.0%

#4 1–3 7.7%

#5 0–3 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dandenong T.1.0

Hume City2.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DANDENONG T. · PPG 0.75

HUME CITY · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Dandenong T. (H) 13.0%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -15.2%

Draw 19.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -7.0%

Hume City (A) 67.8%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dandenong T. face Hume City in Australia - Victoria NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dandenong T. a 13% chance, the draw 19% and Hume City 68%, so Hume City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Dandenong T. and 2.4 for Hume City (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dandenong T. are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 2.13 for Hume City. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +31.6%.

Dandenong T. vs Hume City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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