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Bentleigh G. vs South Melbourne Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Friday, June 19, 2026, 09:30

Bentleigh G.

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

South Melbourne

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-16.9%0-26.4%0-33.9%0-4+2.8%1 1-05.4%1-19.9%1-29.2%1-35.7%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.8%2-17.1%2-26.6%2-34.1%2-4+2.9%3 3-01.8%3-13.4%3-23.2%3-32.0%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.7%4+-21.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 32.6% 5.10 +66.3%

Draw 23.2% 4.20 -1.5%

Away win 44.2% 1.50 -33.7%

Over 2.5 64.0% 1.48 -5.3%

Over 3.5 40.5% 2.20 -10.9%

BTTS 62.0% 1.55 -3.9%

Win probability 1X2

Bentleigh G. (H) 32.6%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +66.3%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.5%

South Melbourne (A) 44.2%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -33.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 8.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob62.0%

A 44% / xG 1.4-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bentleigh G.1.4

South Melbourne1.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BENTLEIGH G. · PPG 1.33

SOUTH MELBOURNE · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)

Match Preview & Prediction

Bentleigh G. face South Melbourne in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, June 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bentleigh G. a 33% chance, the draw 23% and South Melbourne 44%, so South Melbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Bentleigh G. and 1.9 for South Melbourne (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bentleigh G. are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.00 for South Melbourne. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +66.3%.

Bentleigh G. vs South Melbourne Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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