Today / Australia - Victoria NPL / Bentleigh G. vs Altona Magic

Bentleigh G. vs Altona Magic Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 10:30

Bentleigh G.

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Altona Magic

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+17.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-16.1%0-25.4%0-33.2%0-4+2.1%1 1-05.5%1-19.8%1-28.6%1-35.1%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.4%2-17.8%2-26.9%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.4%3-14.2%3-23.7%3-32.2%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.4%4+-22.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 2.80 -0.9%

Draw 22.0% 3.30 -16.4%

Away win 42.6% 2.30 -2.0%

Over 2.5 65.4% 1.80 +17.7%

Over 3.5 42.2% 3.00 +26.6%

BTTS 63.5% 1.62 +2.9%

Home Over 1.5 50.3% 2.40 +20.7%

Away Over 1.5 49.7% 2.10 +4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -1.7%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.5%

A 43% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bentleigh G.1.6

Altona Magic1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BENTLEIGH G. · PPG 1.20

ALTONA MAGIC · PPG 1.13

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Bentleigh G. (H) 35.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -0.9%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -16.4%

Altona Magic (A) 42.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bentleigh G. face Altona Magic in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bentleigh G. a 35% chance, the draw 22% and Altona Magic 43%, so Altona Magic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Bentleigh G. and 1.8 for Altona Magic (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bentleigh G. are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.13 for Altona Magic. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Bentleigh G. vs Altona Magic Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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