Today / Australia - Victoria NPL / St. Albans vs Altona Magic

St. Albans vs Altona Magic Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 07:00

St. Albans

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Altona Magic

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.5%0-25.6%0-32.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.5%1-111.2%1-28.4%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.4%2-26.3%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.8%3-14.2%3-23.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% 48.8% 2.05 -18.4%

Draw 24.5% 29.4% 3.40 -10.0%

Away win 35.7% 32.3% 3.10 +10.7%

Over 2.5 61.1% 55.6% 1.80 +10.0%

Over 3.5 37.0% 33.3% 3.00 +11.0%

BTTS 61.7% 60.6% 1.65 +1.8%

Home O1.5 43.4% 51.3% 1.95 -15.4%

Away O1.5 50.8% 38.5% 2.60 +32.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.7%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1✓ 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Albans1.5

Altona Magic1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. ALBANS · PPG 1.00

ALTONA MAGIC · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

St. Albans (H) 39.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -18.4%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.0%

Altona Magic (A) 35.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Albans face Altona Magic in Australia - Victoria NPL on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Albans a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Altona Magic 36%, so St. Albans are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for St. Albans and 1.5 for Altona Magic (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Albans are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.29 for Altona Magic. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +32.1%. This match finished 2-1.

St. Albans vs Altona Magic Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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