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Avondale vs Dandenong T. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 05:00

Avondale

PPG 2.38 · HOME

11 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Dandenong T.

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 76.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.0%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.1%1-15.9%1-22.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.9%2-18.5%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.6%3-18.2%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-012.7%4+-112.1%4+-25.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.0% 75.2% 1.33 -10.9%

Draw 18.0% 20.0% 5.00 -6.0%

Away win 15.0% 14.3% 7.00 +3.0%

Over 2.5 65.9% 70.4% 1.42 -6.4%

Over 3.5 46.6% 48.8% 2.05 -4.5%

BTTS 61.5% 60.6% 1.65 +1.5%

Home O1.5 76.8% 76.9% 1.30 -0.2%

Away O1.5 29.5% 28.2% 3.55 +2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 10.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 11-0

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.5%

H 67% / xG 2.9-1.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 8.9%

#2 3–0 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 3–1 8.2%

#5 1–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Avondale2.9

Dandenong T.1.0

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AVONDALE · PPG 2.38

DANDENONG T. · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.38), Away POOR (0.75) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Avondale (H) 67.0%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -10.9%

Draw 18.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -6.0%

Dandenong T. (A) 15.0%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Avondale face Dandenong T. in Australia - Victoria NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Avondale a 67% chance, the draw 18% and Dandenong T. 15%, so Avondale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Avondale and 1.0 for Dandenong T. (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Avondale are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.75 for Dandenong T.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 11-0.

Avondale vs Dandenong T. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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