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Dandenong City vs Avondale Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 09:45

Dandenong City

PPG 1.67 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Avondale

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-17.5%0-27.4%0-34.8%0-4+3.7%1 1-05.0%1-19.7%1-29.6%1-36.3%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.2%2-16.3%2-26.2%2-34.1%2-4+3.2%3 3-01.4%3-12.7%3-22.7%3-31.8%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 28.1% 4.20 +10.8%

Draw 21.7% 4.10 -6.6%

Away win 50.2% 1.62 -18.7%

Over 2.5 65.6% 1.48 -2.9%

Over 3.5 42.9% 2.20 -5.6%

BTTS 63.5% 1.50 -4.8%

Home Over 1.5 43.1% 2.62 +12.9%

Away Over 1.5 49.7% 1.48 -26.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -1.7%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.5%

A 50% / xG 1.3-2.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.4%

#4 2–1 6.3%

#5 1–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dandenong City1.3

Avondale2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DANDENONG CITY · PPG 1.67

AVONDALE · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Dandenong City (H) 28.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +10.8%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -6.6%

Avondale (A) 50.2%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dandenong City face Avondale in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dandenong City a 28% chance, the draw 22% and Avondale 50%, so Avondale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Dandenong City and 2.0 for Avondale (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dandenong City are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.50 for Avondale. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Dandenong City vs Avondale Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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