Today / Argentina - Primera Nacional / Ciudad Bolivar vs D. Madryn

Ciudad Bolivar vs D. Madryn Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 23:00

Ciudad Bolivar

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

D. Madryn

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-033.1%0-19.7%0-21.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-026.9%1-17.9%1-21.2%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-010.9%2-13.2%2-20.5%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.9%3-10.9%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.2%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 40.0% 2.50 +14.5%

Draw 41.5% 40.0% 2.50 +3.8%

Away win 12.7% 29.4% 3.40 -56.8%

Over 2.5 10.1% — — —

Over 3.5 2.6% — — —

BTTS 14.2% 40.8% 2.45 -65.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob14.2%

H 46% / xG 0.8-0.3 / U2.5 10% / NoBTTS 14%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 33.1%

#2 1–0✓ 26.9%

#3 2–0 10.9%

#4 0–1 9.7%

#5 1–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ciudad Bolivar0.8

D. Madryn0.3

COMBINED 1.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 10.1% · O3.5 PROB 2.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CIUDAD BOLIVAR · PPG 1.00

D. MADRYN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Ciudad Bolivar (H) 45.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +14.5%

Draw 41.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +3.8%

D. Madryn (A) 12.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -56.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ciudad Bolivar face D. Madryn in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ciudad Bolivar a 46% chance, the draw 42% and D. Madryn 13%, so Ciudad Bolivar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Ciudad Bolivar and 0.3 for D. Madryn (1.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 10% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 14% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ciudad Bolivar are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for D. Madryn. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Ciudad Bolivar vs D. Madryn Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera Nacional Predictions