Ciudad Bolivar vs D. Madryn Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Argentina - Primera Nacional Regular Season - 10 Estadio Municipal Eva Peron· Bolivar Saturday, April 18, 2026 23:00

Ciudad Bolivar PPG 1.00

1-0 HIT CS2

D. Madryn PPG 1.00

Home· +14.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Ciudad Bolivar face D. Madryn in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ciudad Bolivar a 46% chance, the draw 42% and D. Madryn 13%, so Ciudad Bolivar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Ciudad Bolivar and 0.3 for D. Madryn (1.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 10% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 14% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ciudad Bolivar are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for D. Madryn. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.8%

Odds: 2.50 EV: +14.5%

Draw 41.5%

Odds: 2.50 EV: +3.8%

Away 12.7%

Odds: 3.40 EV: -56.8%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 10.1% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 2.6% Odds: — —

BTTS 14.2% Odds: 2.45 -65.2%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-0 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✔

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 1-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Ciudad Bolivar

0.81

D. Madryn

0.29

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)