Sport Huancayo vs D. Garcilaso Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Peru - Primera División Apertura - 11 Estadio Huancayo· Huancayo Saturday, April 18, 2026 22:30

Sport Huancayo PPG 1.40

2-1 MISS

D. Garcilaso PPG 0.50

Draw· -3.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Sport Huancayo face D. Garcilaso in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sport Huancayo a 51% chance, the draw 28% and D. Garcilaso 21%, so Sport Huancayo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sport Huancayo and 0.8 for D. Garcilaso (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sport Huancayo are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.50 for D. Garcilaso. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 51.3%

Odds: 1.80 EV: -7.7%

Draw 27.9%

Odds: 3.45 EV: -3.7%

Away 20.8%

Odds: 4.45 EV: -7.4%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 36.0% Odds: 2.00 -28.0%

Over 3.5 16.8% Odds: 3.55 -40.4%

BTTS 39.8% Odds: 1.83 -27.2%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Sport Huancayo

1.37

D. Garcilaso

0.76

Model SuggestionHome -7.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -7.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5/Under 64%

BTTS/No 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 54% (26 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=51.3%