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Sport Huancayo vs D. Garcilaso Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 11 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 22:30

Sport Huancayo

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

D. Garcilaso

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-19.0%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.2%1-112.4%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-18.5%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.1%3-13.9%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 55.6% 1.80 -7.7%

Draw 27.9% 29.0% 3.45 -3.7%

Away win 20.8% 22.5% 4.45 -7.4%

Over 2.5 36.0% 50.0% 2.00 -28.0%

Over 3.5 16.8% 28.2% 3.55 -40.4%

BTTS 39.8% 54.6% 1.83 -27.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob39.8%

H 51% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.2%

#2 1–1 12.4%

#3 0–0 11.8%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sport Huancayo1.4

D. Garcilaso0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.0% · O3.5 PROB 16.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORT HUANCAYO · PPG 1.40

D. GARCILASO · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=51.3%

Win probability 1X2

Sport Huancayo (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -7.7%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -3.7%

D. Garcilaso (A) 20.8%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sport Huancayo face D. Garcilaso in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sport Huancayo a 51% chance, the draw 28% and D. Garcilaso 21%, so Sport Huancayo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sport Huancayo and 0.8 for D. Garcilaso (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sport Huancayo are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.50 for D. Garcilaso. This match finished 2-1.

Sport Huancayo vs D. Garcilaso Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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