Guadalupe vs Zeledon Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Costa-Rica - Primera División Clausura - 16 Estadio Coyella Fonseca Saturday, April 18, 2026 22:00

Guadalupe PPG 1.00

1-0 HIT CS3

Zeledon PPG 0.14

Over3.5· +4.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Guadalupe face Zeledon in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guadalupe a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Zeledon 27%, so Guadalupe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Guadalupe and 1.2 for Zeledon (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guadalupe are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.14 for Zeledon. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 49.3%

Odds: 2.05 EV: +1.1%

Draw 23.8%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -22.7%

Away 26.9%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -12.6%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 56.0% Odds: 1.85 +3.6%

Over 3.5 33.7% Odds: 3.10 +4.5%

BTTS 57.6% Odds: 1.67 -3.8%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✔

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Guadalupe

1.72

Zeledon

1.21

Model SuggestionBTTS -3.8% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-3.8%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.00) vs P(Home)=49.3%