Today / Costa-Rica - Primera División / Guadalupe vs Zeledon

Guadalupe vs Zeledon Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Clausura - 16 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 22:00

Guadalupe

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Zeledon

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.5%0-23.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.2%1-111.1%1-26.7%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.9%2-19.6%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.5%3-15.5%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.5%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 48.8% 2.05 +1.1%

Draw 23.8% 30.8% 3.25 -22.7%

Away win 26.9% 30.8% 3.25 -12.6%

Over 2.5 56.0% 54.1% 1.85 +3.6%

Over 3.5 33.7% 32.3% 3.10 +4.5%

BTTS 57.6% 59.9% 1.67 -3.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob57.6%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0✓ 9.2%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 1–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guadalupe1.7

Zeledon1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GUADALUPE · PPG 1.00

ZELEDON · PPG 0.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.00) vs P(Home)=49.3%

Win probability 1X2

Guadalupe (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +1.1%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -22.7%

Zeledon (A) 26.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guadalupe face Zeledon in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guadalupe a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Zeledon 27%, so Guadalupe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Guadalupe and 1.2 for Zeledon (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guadalupe are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.14 for Zeledon. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Guadalupe vs Zeledon Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Costa-Rica - Primera División Predictions