Today / Costa-Rica - Primera División / Puntarenas FC vs CS Cartagines

Puntarenas FC vs CS Cartagines Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 22:00

Puntarenas FC

PPG 1.28 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWW

UPCOMING

CS Cartagines

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-110.6%0-26.6%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.4%1-112.9%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.4%2-17.9%2-24.9%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.6%3-13.2%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 41.7% 2.40 -11.9%

Draw 26.6% 34.5% 2.90 -13.7%

Away win 36.7% 38.2% 2.62 -3.9%

Over 2.5 51.3% 48.8% 2.05 +5.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 26.7% 3.75 +18.5%

BTTS 54.6% 57.1% 1.75 -4.5%

Home O1.5 33.6% 38.2% 2.62 -12.0%

Away O1.5 36.8% 38.2% 2.62 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 37% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 10.4%

#3 0–1 10.6%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puntarenas FC1.2

CS Cartagines1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PUNTARENAS FC · PPG 1.28

CS CARTAGINES · PPG 1.19

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

56%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.02, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Puntarenas FC (H) 36.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -11.9%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.7%

CS Cartagines (A) 36.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puntarenas FC face CS Cartagines in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puntarenas FC a 37% chance, the draw 27% and CS Cartagines 37%, so Puntarenas FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Puntarenas FC and 1.2 for CS Cartagines (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puntarenas FC are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.19 for CS Cartagines. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.5%.

Puntarenas FC vs CS Cartagines Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Costa-Rica - Primera División Predictions