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LD Alajuelense vs Deportivo Saprissa Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 02:00

LD Alajuelense

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLD

UPCOMING

Deportivo Saprissa

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.9%0-24.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.6%1-112.1%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.2%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.1%3-14.7%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 44.4% 2.25 +1.7%

Draw 25.1% 32.3% 3.10 -13.3%

Away win 29.7% 36.4% 2.75 -11.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 51.3% 1.95 +4.9%

Over 3.5 31.6% 29.4% 3.40 +7.4%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 40.1% 44.4% 2.25 -9.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 38.2% 2.62 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 8.1%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

LD Alajuelense1.5

Deportivo Saprissa1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LD ALAJUELENSE · PPG 1.93

DEPORTIVO SAPRISSA · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

LD Alajuelense (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +1.7%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.3%

Deportivo Saprissa (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

LD Alajuelense face Deportivo Saprissa in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives LD Alajuelense a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Deportivo Saprissa 30%, so LD Alajuelense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for LD Alajuelense and 1.1 for Deportivo Saprissa (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, LD Alajuelense are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.50 for Deportivo Saprissa. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.4%.

LD Alajuelense vs Deportivo Saprissa Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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