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CS Herediano vs Perez Zeledon Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:00

CS Herediano

PPG 1.26 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

UPCOMING

Perez Zeledon

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-110.0%0-24.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.6%1-113.0%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-18.4%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.1%3-13.6%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 65.4% 1.53 -33.1%

Draw 27.5% 27.8% 3.60 -0.6%

Away win 28.8% 20.0% 5.00 +26.4%

Over 2.5 42.7% 54.1% 1.85 -21.0%

Over 3.5 20.9% 30.8% 3.25 -19.3%

BTTS 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

Home O1.5 38.4% 59.9% 1.67 -35.9%

Away O1.5 25.6% 23.1% 4.33 +6.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 2–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CS Herediano1.3

Perez Zeledon0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CS HEREDIANO · PPG 1.26

PEREZ ZELEDON · PPG 0.77

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.40, combined xG 2.18 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CS Herediano (H) 43.7%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -33.1%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.6%

Perez Zeledon (A) 28.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +26.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

CS Herediano face Perez Zeledon in Costa-Rica - Primera División on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CS Herediano a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Perez Zeledon 29%, so CS Herediano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for CS Herediano and 0.9 for Perez Zeledon (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CS Herediano are averaging 1.26 points per game versus 0.77 for Perez Zeledon. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +33.1%.

CS Herediano vs Perez Zeledon Prediction— Costa-Rica - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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