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Orebro SK vs IFK Varnamo Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 17 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 17:05

Orebro SK

PPG 1.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

IFK Varnamo

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+14.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-17.8%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.4%1-112.0%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.3%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.4%3-14.8%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 46.5% 2.15 +14.2%

Draw 24.6% 28.2% 3.55 -7.6%

Away win 22.4% 32.3% 3.10 -18.3%

Over 2.5 50.4% 55.6% 1.80 -9.3%

Over 3.5 28.9% 33.3% 3.00 -8.0%

BTTS 50.2% 61.7% 1.62 -18.7%

Home O1.5 45.4% 50.0% 2.00 -9.2%

Away O1.5 24.4% 39.2% 2.55 -22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.2%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 13.4%

#3 0–0 8.6%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orebro SK1.6

IFK Varnamo0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

OREBRO SK · PPG 1.12

IFK VARNAMO · PPG 0.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Orebro SK (H) 53.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +14.2%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.6%

IFK Varnamo (A) 22.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orebro SK face IFK Varnamo in Sweden - Superettan on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orebro SK a 53% chance, the draw 25% and IFK Varnamo 22%, so Orebro SK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Orebro SK and 0.9 for IFK Varnamo (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orebro SK are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 0.38 for IFK Varnamo.

Orebro SK vs IFK Varnamo Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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