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IFK Norrkoping vs IK brage Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:00

IFK Norrkoping

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

IK brage

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-14.4%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.0%1-19.2%1-23.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.6%2-23.7%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.8%3-16.7%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-15.7%4+-22.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.2% 64.5% 1.55 -3.6%

Draw 21.5% 23.1% 4.33 -4.1%

Away win 16.3% 19.6% 5.10 -10.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 66.7% 1.50 -19.8%

Over 3.5 32.8% 45.5% 2.20 -27.8%

BTTS 53.1% 65.4% 1.53 -18.8%

Home O1.5 61.4% 69.0% 1.45 -11.0%

Away O1.5 17.4% 34.7% 2.88 -29.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 62% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.6%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 1–1 9.2%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0✓ 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Norrkoping2.1

IK brage0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK NORRKOPING · PPG 2.00

IK BRAGE · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.33 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

IFK Norrkoping (H) 62.2%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -3.6%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -4.1%

IK brage (A) 16.3%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Norrkoping face IK brage in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Norrkoping a 62% chance, the draw 22% and IK brage 16%, so IFK Norrkoping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for IFK Norrkoping and 0.8 for IK brage (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Norrkoping are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.22 for IK brage. This match finished 3-0.

IFK Norrkoping vs IK brage Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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