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Ljungskile SK vs Oddevold Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Ljungskile SK

PPG 1.62 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Oddevold

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+13.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.1%0-24.3%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.5%1-110.6%1-27.4%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.5%2-19.1%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.7%3-15.3%3-23.7%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.4%4+-22.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 40.8% 2.45 +13.7%

Draw 24.5% 29.0% 3.45 -9.3%

Away win 29.1% 37.0% 2.70 -12.9%

Over 2.5 61.8% 54.6% 1.83 +13.1%

Over 3.5 38.3% 33.3% 3.00 +14.9%

BTTS 61.8% 62.5% 1.60 -1.1%

Home O1.5 49.2% 46.5% 2.15 +5.8%

Away O1.5 43.7% 43.5% 2.30 +0.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.8%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ljungskile SK1.7

Oddevold1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.8% · O3.5 PROB 38.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LJUNGSKILE SK · PPG 1.62

ODDEVOLD · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ljungskile SK (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +13.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.3%

Oddevold (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ljungskile SK face Oddevold in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ljungskile SK a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Oddevold 29%, so Ljungskile SK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Ljungskile SK and 1.4 for Oddevold (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ljungskile SK are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.50 for Oddevold. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Ljungskile SK vs Oddevold Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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