Today / Sweden - Superettan / Norrby IF vs Orebro SK

Norrby IF vs Orebro SK Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 18 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 17:00

Norrby IF

PPG 1.25 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Orebro SK

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.1% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+12.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-19.0%0-23.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.8%1-112.4%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-18.6%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.1%3-14.0%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 44.4% 2.25 +12.7%

Draw 26.8% 29.0% 3.45 -4.5%

Away win 23.0% 33.9% 2.95 -19.3%

Over 2.5 47.7% 54.1% 1.85 -11.8%

Over 3.5 28.4% 31.3% 3.20 -5.5%

BTTS 49.2% 60.6% 1.65 -18.8%

Home O1.5 40.4% 47.6% 2.10 -15.2%

Away O1.5 19.3% 39.2% 2.55 -30.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 15.8%

#3 0–0 11.4%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Norrby IF1.4

Orebro SK0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NORRBY IF · PPG 1.25

OREBRO SK · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Norrby IF (H) 50.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +12.7%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.5%

Orebro SK (A) 23.0%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Norrby IF face Orebro SK in Sweden - Superettan on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norrby IF a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Orebro SK 23%, so Norrby IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Norrby IF and 0.8 for Orebro SK (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norrby IF are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.75 for Orebro SK. This match finished 3-1.

Norrby IF vs Orebro SK Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Superettan Predictions