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Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 18 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 17:00

Ostersunds FK

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

GIF Sundsvall

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-12.3%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.2%1-16.2%1-22.1%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.4%2-18.4%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.3%3-17.6%3-22.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-014.8%4+-19.9%4+-23.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.8% 66.7% 1.50 +9.2%

Draw 18.1% 24.4% 4.10 -15.5%

Away win 9.1% 16.0% 6.25 -25.9%

Over 2.5 63.8% 54.1% 1.85 +18.0%

Over 3.5 42.6% 31.3% 3.20 +36.3%

BTTS 52.8% 52.6% 1.90 +0.3%

Home O1.5 63.0% 61.7% 1.62 +2.1%

Away O1.5 17.4% 23.1% 4.33 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -3.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.8%

H 73% / xG 2.7-0.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 3–0 11.3%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 4–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ostersunds FK2.7

GIF Sundsvall0.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OSTERSUNDS FK · PPG 2.12

GIF SUNDSVALL · PPG 0.38

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.04 for Home, form 2.12 vs 0.38 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Ostersunds FK (H) 72.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +9.2%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -15.5%

GIF Sundsvall (A) 9.1%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ostersunds FK face GIF Sundsvall in Sweden - Superettan on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ostersunds FK a 73% chance, the draw 18% and GIF Sundsvall 9%, so Ostersunds FK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Ostersunds FK and 0.7 for GIF Sundsvall (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ostersunds FK are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 0.38 for GIF Sundsvall. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +36.3%.

Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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