Today / Sweden - Superettan / Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken

Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 13:00

Varbergs BoIS FC

PPG 2.11 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sandviken

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.3%0-22.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.8%1-17.8%1-25.3%1-32.4%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.8%2-19.2%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.4%3-17.2%3-24.9%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-17.4%4+-25.0%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 52.4% 1.91 +5.8%

Draw 21.9% 26.3% 3.80 -10.1%

Away win 22.7% 28.6% 3.50 -12.3%

Over 2.5 67.0% 62.5% 1.60 +7.2%

Over 3.5 44.0% 40.8% 2.45 +7.8%

BTTS 64.3% 66.7% 1.50 -3.5%

Home O1.5 62.4% 57.8% 1.73 +8.0%

Away O1.5 43.7% 41.7% 2.40 +4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob64.3%

H 55% / xG 2.4-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 3–1 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varbergs BoIS FC2.4

Sandviken1.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

VARBERGS BOIS FC · PPG 2.11

SANDVIKEN · PPG 0.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Varbergs BoIS FC (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +5.8%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.1%

Sandviken (A) 22.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Varbergs BoIS FC face Sandviken in Sweden - Superettan on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Sandviken 23%, so Varbergs BoIS FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.3 for Sandviken (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.62 for Sandviken. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Varbergs BoIS FC vs Sandviken Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Superettan Predictions