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Falkenbergs FF vs United Nordic Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Falkenbergs FF

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

United Nordic

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.3%0-23.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.7%1-110.1%1-26.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.6%3-16.0%3-23.9%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.4%4+-22.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 47.6% 2.10 +5.0%

Draw 23.8% 27.4% 3.65 -7.9%

Away win 26.2% 32.3% 3.10 -11.3%

Over 2.5 60.4% 59.9% 1.67 +0.9%

Over 3.5 37.7% 37.7% 2.65 -0.1%

BTTS 61.8% 64.5% 1.55 -4.2%

Home O1.5 55.4% 54.1% 1.85 +2.5%

Away O1.5 42.4% 41.7% 2.40 +1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.8%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Falkenbergs FF1.9

United Nordic1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FALKENBERGS FF · PPG 1.75

UNITED NORDIC · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Falkenbergs FF (H) 50.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +5.0%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.9%

United Nordic (A) 26.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Falkenbergs FF face United Nordic in Sweden - Superettan on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Falkenbergs FF a 50% chance, the draw 24% and United Nordic 26%, so Falkenbergs FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Falkenbergs FF and 1.3 for United Nordic (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Falkenbergs FF are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.12 for United Nordic. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Falkenbergs FF vs United Nordic Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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