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Helsingborg vs IFK Varnamo Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Matchday 18 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 17:00

Helsingborg

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

IFK Varnamo

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 80.3% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+52.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.8%0-21.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-03.7%1-15.3%1-23.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.4%2-17.8%2-25.6%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.3%3-17.6%3-25.5%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-08.0%4+-111.5%4+-28.3%4+-34.0%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.8% 45.5% 2.20 +33.8%

Draw 17.1% 27.4% 3.65 -22.6%

Away win 22.1% 34.5% 2.90 -21.6%

Over 2.5 71.6% 61.7% 1.62 +16.0%

Over 3.5 51.5% 38.5% 2.60 +33.9%

BTTS 63.3% 66.7% 1.50 -5.1%

Home O1.5 80.3% 52.6% 1.90 +52.6%

Away O1.5 42.6% 45.5% 2.20 -6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.3%

H 61% / xG 2.9-1.4 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.8%

#2 3–1 7.6%

#3 1–1 5.3%

#4 2–2 5.6%

#5 4–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Helsingborg2.9

IFK Varnamo1.4

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 51.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HELSINGBORG · PPG 1.56

IFK VARNAMO · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Helsingborg (H) 60.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +33.8%

Draw 17.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -22.6%

IFK Varnamo (A) 22.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Helsingborg face IFK Varnamo in Sweden - Superettan on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Helsingborg a 61% chance, the draw 17% and IFK Varnamo 22%, so Helsingborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Helsingborg and 1.4 for IFK Varnamo (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Helsingborg are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.67 for IFK Varnamo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +71.4%.

Helsingborg vs IFK Varnamo Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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