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San Marcos vs Cobreloa Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 21:30

San Marcos

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Cobreloa

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.5%0-117.2%0-26.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.4%1-112.5%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-06.0%2-14.6%2-21.7%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.5%3-11.1%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.5% 40.8% 2.45 -25.3%

Draw 36.8% 32.3% 3.10 +14.1%

Away win 32.6% 37.0% 2.70 -12.0%

Over 2.5 18.9% 48.8% 2.05 -61.3%

Over 3.5 6.5% 27.4% 3.65 -76.3%

BTTS 27.7% 56.5% 1.77 -51.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob27.7%

D 37% / xG 0.7-0.8 / U2.5 19% / NoBTTS 28%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.5%

#2 0–1 17.2%

#3 1–0 16.4%

#4 1–1 12.5%

#5 0–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Marcos0.7

Cobreloa0.8

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 18.9% · O3.5 PROB 6.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARCOS · PPG 1.67

COBRELOA · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

San Marcos (H) 30.5%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -25.3%

Draw 36.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +14.1%

Cobreloa (A) 32.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Marcos face Cobreloa in Chile - Primera B on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Marcos a 31% chance, the draw 37% and Cobreloa 33%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for San Marcos and 0.8 for Cobreloa (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 19% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 28% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Marcos are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.67 for Cobreloa. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +14.1%. This match finished 2-1.

San Marcos vs Cobreloa Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera B Predictions