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Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 12:00

Shandong Luneng

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Tianjin Teda

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.2%0-23.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.2%1-19.9%1-26.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.3%3-16.0%3-24.1%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.4%4+-23.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 60.6% 1.65 -19.3%

Draw 22.3% 26.3% 3.80 -9.2%

Away win 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

Over 2.5 63.6% 64.5% 1.55 -1.4%

Over 3.5 41.0% 42.6% 2.35 -3.6%

BTTS 62.9% 66.7% 1.50 -5.7%

Home O1.5 55.4% 63.7% 1.57 -13.0%

Away O1.5 43.7% 35.7% 2.80 +22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.9%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1✓ 9.4%

#3 2–0 6.8%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shandong Luneng1.9

Tianjin Teda1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANDONG LUNENG · PPG 1.80

TIANJIN TEDA · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Shandong Luneng (H) 48.9%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -19.3%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.2%

Tianjin Teda (A) 28.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shandong Luneng face Tianjin Teda in China - Super League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shandong Luneng a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Tianjin Teda 29%, so Shandong Luneng are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Shandong Luneng and 1.4 for Tianjin Teda (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.50 for Tianjin Teda. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +22.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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