Today / China - Super League / Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island

Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 11:00

Henan Jianye

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Qingdao Youth Island

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-16.4%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.1%1-111.2%1-25.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.7%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.1%3-15.7%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 65.8% 1.52 -19.1%

Draw 23.9% 25.6% 3.90 -4.1%

Away win 22.9% 17.5% 5.70 +18.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 60.6% 1.65 -11.7%

Over 3.5 32.3% 38.5% 2.60 -16.0%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 49.2% 64.5% 1.55 -23.7%

Away O1.5 26.0% 28.2% 3.55 -4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–0 10.6%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0✓ 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Henan Jianye1.7

Qingdao Youth Island0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HENAN JIANYE · PPG 1.40

QINGDAO YOUTH ISLAND · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Henan Jianye (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -19.1%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.1%

Qingdao Youth Island (A) 22.9%

ODDS 5.70 · IMPLIED 17.5% EV +18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Henan Jianye face Qingdao Youth Island in China - Super League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Henan Jianye a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Qingdao Youth Island 23%, so Henan Jianye are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Henan Jianye and 0.9 for Qingdao Youth Island (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Henan Jianye are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.20 for Qingdao Youth Island. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - Super League Predictions