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Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 11:35

Chongqing Tongliang Long

PPG 1.70 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

SHANGHAI SIPG

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-18.4%0-24.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.2%1-112.4%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-19.1%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.8%3-14.5%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 31.3% 3.20 +54.9%

Draw 26.2% 29.0% 3.45 -5.8%

Away win 25.4% 48.5% 2.06 -28.6%

Over 2.5 50.3% 56.5% 1.77 -11.0%

Over 3.5 29.1% 33.9% 2.95 -8.5%

BTTS 53.1% 61.7% 1.62 -14.0%

Home O1.5 45.4% 38.2% 2.62 +18.9%

Away O1.5 27.7% 51.3% 1.95 -27.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 48% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 0–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chongqing Tongliang Long1.5

SHANGHAI SIPG0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CHONGQING TONGLIANG LONG · PPG 1.70

SHANGHAI SIPG · PPG 0.90

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Chongqing Tongliang Long (H) 48.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +54.9%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -5.8%

SHANGHAI SIPG (A) 25.4%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV -28.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chongqing Tongliang Long face SHANGHAI SIPG in China - Super League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 48% chance, the draw 26% and SHANGHAI SIPG 25%, so Chongqing Tongliang Long are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 0.9 for SHANGHAI SIPG (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chongqing Tongliang Long are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.90 for SHANGHAI SIPG. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Chongqing Tongliang Long vs SHANGHAI SIPG Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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