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Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Yunnan Yukun

PPG 1.70 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Chengdu Better City

PPG 2.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.9%0-24.5%0-32.8%0-4+1.9%1 1-04.8%1-18.8%1-28.1%1-34.9%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.3%2-17.8%2-27.2%2-34.4%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.5%3-14.7%3-24.3%3-32.6%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.1%4+-22.9%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.8% 31.3% 3.20 +33.8%

Draw 22.7% 24.4% 4.10 -4.2%

Away win 35.5% 53.2% 1.88 -33.3%

Over 2.5 67.2% 75.2% 1.33 -10.6%

Over 3.5 44.0% 52.6% 1.90 -16.4%

BTTS 64.3% 75.2% 1.33 -14.5%

Home O1.5 49.2% 51.3% 1.95 -4.1%

Away O1.5 52.6% 66.7% 1.50 -21.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob64.3%

A 36% / xG 1.8-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yunnan Yukun1.8

Chengdu Better City1.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

YUNNAN YUKUN · PPG 1.70

CHENGDU BETTER CITY · PPG 2.10

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Yunnan Yukun (H) 41.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +33.8%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.2%

Chengdu Better City (A) 35.5%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -33.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yunnan Yukun face Chengdu Better City in China - Super League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yunnan Yukun a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Chengdu Better City 36%, so Yunnan Yukun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Yunnan Yukun and 1.8 for Chengdu Better City (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 2.10 for Chengdu Better City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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