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Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 22 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 11:35

Beijing Guoan

PPG 1.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sichuan Jiuniu

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.1%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.7%1-17.7%1-23.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.5%2-19.5%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.8%3-17.8%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-18.6%4+-24.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.5% 74.1% 1.35 -14.3%

Draw 20.4% 20.4% 4.90 -0.0%

Away win 16.1% 14.8% 6.75 +5.2%

Over 2.5 63.8% 72.5% 1.38 -12.0%

Over 3.5 42.7% 51.3% 1.95 -16.7%

BTTS 54.6% 64.5% 1.55 -15.4%

Home O1.5 62.7% 76.9% 1.30 -18.5%

Away O1.5 30.5% 30.8% 3.25 -0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 64% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.7%

#4 3–0 7.8%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Beijing Guoan2.5

Sichuan Jiuniu1.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BEIJING GUOAN · PPG 1.64

SICHUAN JIUNIU · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.47 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Beijing Guoan (H) 63.5%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -14.3%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV -0.0%

Sichuan Jiuniu (A) 16.1%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Beijing Guoan face Sichuan Jiuniu in China - Super League on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Beijing Guoan a 64% chance, the draw 20% and Sichuan Jiuniu 16%, so Beijing Guoan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Beijing Guoan and 1.0 for Sichuan Jiuniu (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.40 for Sichuan Jiuniu. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.3%.

Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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