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Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 10:00

Qingdao Youth Island

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Qingdao Jonoon

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.3%0-22.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.9%1-110.3%1-25.4%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.1%3-16.4%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.8%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 57.8% 1.73 -3.1%

Draw 22.3% 26.7% 3.75 -9.8%

Away win 21.8% 24.4% 4.10 -6.4%

Over 2.5 62.3% 61.7% 1.62 +0.9%

Over 3.5 39.7% 40.0% 2.50 -0.8%

BTTS 59.8% 64.5% 1.55 -7.3%

Home O1.5 53.6% 60.6% 1.65 -11.6%

Away O1.5 36.2% 35.7% 2.80 +1.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.8%

H 56% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qingdao Youth Island1.9

Qingdao Jonoon1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.7%

Form & verdict PPG

QINGDAO YOUTH ISLAND · PPG 1.60

QINGDAO JONOON · PPG 0.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.89 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Qingdao Youth Island (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -3.1%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.8%

Qingdao Jonoon (A) 21.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qingdao Youth Island face Qingdao Jonoon in China - Super League on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qingdao Youth Island a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Qingdao Jonoon 22%, so Qingdao Youth Island are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Qingdao Youth Island and 1.0 for Qingdao Jonoon (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qingdao Youth Island are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.40 for Qingdao Jonoon. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +4.7%.

Qingdao Youth Island vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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