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Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:35

Dalian Zhixing

PPG 2.10 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Shenyang Urban

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.5%0-22.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.9%1-19.4%1-25.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.7%3-16.8%3-24.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-15.8%4+-23.4%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 63.3% 1.58 -17.5%

Draw 22.1% 24.4% 4.10 -5.6%

Away win 25.7% 21.1% 4.75 +13.2%

Over 2.5 63.8% 66.7% 1.50 -4.3%

Over 3.5 42.5% 43.5% 2.30 -2.3%

BTTS 62.2% 65.4% 1.53 -4.8%

Home O1.5 61.4% 66.7% 1.50 -7.9%

Away O1.5 35.5% 34.7% 2.88 +2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.2%

H 52% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 3–1 6.8%

#5 1–0✓ 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dalian Zhixing2.1

Shenyang Urban1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DALIAN ZHIXING · PPG 2.10

SHENYANG URBAN · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dalian Zhixing (H) 52.2%

ODDS 1.58 · IMPLIED 63.3% EV -17.5%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.6%

Shenyang Urban (A) 25.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dalian Zhixing face Shenyang Urban in China - Super League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dalian Zhixing a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Shenyang Urban 26%, so Dalian Zhixing are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Dalian Zhixing and 1.2 for Shenyang Urban (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dalian Zhixing are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.67 for Shenyang Urban. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +11.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Dalian Zhixing vs Shenyang Urban Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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