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Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Qingdao Jonoon

PPG 1.70 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Shanghai Shenhua

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.5%0-23.5%0-31.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.7%1-18.9%1-27.0%1-33.7%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.6%2-18.8%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.7%3-15.8%3-24.6%3-32.4%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.5%4+-23.6%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 23.3% 4.30 +110.7%

Draw 22.2% 24.4% 4.10 -5.4%

Away win 28.8% 61.3% 1.63 -31.8%

Over 2.5 65.2% 70.4% 1.42 -7.4%

Over 3.5 43.2% 47.6% 2.10 -9.3%

BTTS 64.3% 69.4% 1.44 -7.4%

Home O1.5 55.4% 39.2% 2.55 +41.3%

Away O1.5 48.2% 67.6% 1.48 -28.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob64.3%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qingdao Jonoon2.0

Shanghai Shenhua1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

QINGDAO JONOON · PPG 1.70

SHANGHAI SHENHUA · PPG 1.20

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Qingdao Jonoon (H) 49.0%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +110.7%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.4%

Shanghai Shenhua (A) 28.8%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -31.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qingdao Jonoon face Shanghai Shenhua in China - Super League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Shanghai Shenhua 29%, so Qingdao Jonoon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.6 for Shanghai Shenhua (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.20 for Shanghai Shenhua. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +124.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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