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Shenyang Urban vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 11:35

Shenyang Urban

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shanghai Shenhua

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.1%0-24.6%0-32.3%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.0%1-110.4%1-27.8%1-33.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.8%2-26.6%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.3%3-15.0%3-23.7%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.1%4+-22.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 25.6% 3.90 +70.8%

Draw 22.6% 25.3% 3.95 -6.4%

Away win 33.6% 58.1% 1.72 -42.2%

Over 2.5 63.6% 69.0% 1.45 -7.8%

Over 3.5 40.2% 46.5% 2.15 -13.6%

BTTS 62.1% 69.4% 1.44 -10.6%

Home O1.5 49.4% 40.8% 2.45 +21.0%

Away O1.5 48.0% 64.5% 1.55 -25.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.1%

H 44% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shenyang Urban1.7

Shanghai Shenhua1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SHENYANG URBAN · PPG 1.50

SHANGHAI SHENHUA · PPG 1.33

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Shenyang Urban (H) 43.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +70.8%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -6.4%

Shanghai Shenhua (A) 33.6%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV -42.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shenyang Urban face Shanghai Shenhua in China - Super League on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shenyang Urban a 44% chance, the draw 23% and Shanghai Shenhua 34%, so Shenyang Urban are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Shenyang Urban and 1.5 for Shanghai Shenhua (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shenyang Urban are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.33 for Shanghai Shenhua. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +61.2%.

Shenyang Urban vs Shanghai Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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