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Mjondalen vs Bjarg Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 11:30

Mjondalen

PPG 2.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bjarg

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.2%0-23.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-05.8%1-18.7%1-26.5%1-33.3%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.0%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.1%3-16.2%3-24.7%3-32.4%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-15.2%4+-24.0%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 2.15 +4.5%

Draw 22.1% 3.80 -9.6%

Away win 29.3% 2.65 -13.4%

Over 2.5 66.0% 1.45 -4.3%

Over 3.5 43.5% 2.15 -6.5%

BTTS 63.5% 1.40 -11.1%

Home Over 1.5 60.6% 1.73 +4.8%

Away Over 1.5 49.7% 1.95 -3.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 30%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -43.9%

Bet Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 49% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mjondalen2.1

Bjarg1.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MJONDALEN · PPG 2.60

BJARG · PPG 2.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.60), Away EXCELLENT (2.40)

Win probability 1X2

Mjondalen (H) 48.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +4.5%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.6%

Bjarg (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mjondalen face Bjarg in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mjondalen a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Bjarg 29%, so Mjondalen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Mjondalen and 1.5 for Bjarg (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mjondalen are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 2.40 for Bjarg. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.7%.

Mjondalen vs Bjarg Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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