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Suzhou Dongwu vs Changchun Yatai Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Suzhou Dongwu

PPG 0.89 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Changchun Yatai

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-110.2%0-27.6%0-33.8%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.1%1-112.1%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.8%2-17.2%2-25.4%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.9%3-12.9%3-22.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 38.5% 2.60 -17.8%

Draw 25.2% 30.8% 3.25 -10.9%

Away win 43.2% 40.8% 2.45 +5.8%

Over 2.5 53.5% 45.5% 2.20 +17.7%

Over 3.5 32.3% 25.0% 4.00 +29.2%

BTTS 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Home O1.5 33.0% 37.7% 2.65 -12.6%

Away O1.5 47.0% 39.2% 2.55 +19.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -21.6%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.6%

A 43% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.8%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Suzhou Dongwu1.2

Changchun Yatai1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SUZHOU DONGWU · PPG 0.89

CHANGCHUN YATAI · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Suzhou Dongwu (H) 31.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -17.8%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.9%

Changchun Yatai (A) 43.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Suzhou Dongwu face Changchun Yatai in China - League One on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Suzhou Dongwu a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Changchun Yatai 43%, so Changchun Yatai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Suzhou Dongwu and 1.5 for Changchun Yatai (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Suzhou Dongwu are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.43 for Changchun Yatai. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Suzhou Dongwu vs Changchun Yatai Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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