Today / China - League One / Meizhou Kejia vs Dongguan United

Meizhou Kejia vs Dongguan United Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:30

Meizhou Kejia

PPG 0.88 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Dongguan United

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-17.9%0-25.9%0-33.0%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.5%1-111.4%1-28.6%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.2%2-26.2%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.6%3-14.0%3-23.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 52.6% 1.90 -23.8%

Draw 25.0% 27.8% 3.60 -6.0%

Away win 34.9% 29.0% 3.45 +20.4%

Over 2.5 60.4% 55.6% 1.80 +8.7%

Over 3.5 36.8% 32.3% 3.10 +14.1%

BTTS 61.3% 58.8% 1.70 +4.2%

Home O1.5 45.4% 54.1% 1.85 -16.0%

Away O1.5 47.7% 35.1% 2.85 +35.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -21.6%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.3%

A 35% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.2%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Meizhou Kejia1.4

Dongguan United1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MEIZHOU KEJIA · PPG 0.88

DONGGUAN UNITED · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Meizhou Kejia (H) 40.1%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -23.8%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.0%

Dongguan United (A) 34.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Meizhou Kejia face Dongguan United in China - League One on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Meizhou Kejia a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Dongguan United 35%, so Meizhou Kejia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Meizhou Kejia and 1.5 for Dongguan United (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Meizhou Kejia are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.12 for Dongguan United. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +35.9%. This match finished 3-2.

Meizhou Kejia vs Dongguan United Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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