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Yanbian Longding vs Shenzhen Juniors Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 10:00

Yanbian Longding

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Shenzhen Juniors

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-18.7%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.5%1-112.5%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-19.1%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.4%3-14.4%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 36.4% 2.75 +39.1%

Draw 25.0% 31.3% 3.20 -12.0%

Away win 24.4% 42.6% 2.35 -25.6%

Over 2.5 53.0% 51.3% 1.95 +3.4%

Over 3.5 31.2% 29.0% 3.45 +7.6%

BTTS 53.3% 58.8% 1.70 -9.4%

Home O1.5 45.4% 39.2% 2.55 +15.8%

Away O1.5 30.5% 43.5% 2.30 -29.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -21.6%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.3%

H 51% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 0–0 8.7%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yanbian Longding1.4

Shenzhen Juniors1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

YANBIAN LONGDING · PPG 1.67

SHENZHEN JUNIORS · PPG 1.56

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.45, combined xG 2.45 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Yanbian Longding (H) 50.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +39.1%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.0%

Shenzhen Juniors (A) 24.4%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -25.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Yanbian Longding face Shenzhen Juniors in China - League One on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yanbian Longding a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Shenzhen Juniors 24%, so Yanbian Longding are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Yanbian Longding and 1.0 for Shenzhen Juniors (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yanbian Longding are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.56 for Shenzhen Juniors. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Yanbian Longding vs Shenzhen Juniors Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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