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Nanjing City vs Nantong Zhiyun Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:30

Nanjing City

PPG 1.62 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Nantong Zhiyun

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.0%0-116.5%0-27.6%0-32.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.3%1-113.2%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.7%2-15.3%2-22.4%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.5%3-11.4%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 29.4% 3.40 +6.8%

Draw 33.6% 33.9% 2.95 -0.9%

Away win 34.9% 47.6% 2.10 -26.7%

Over 2.5 36.3% 42.0% 2.38 -13.6%

Over 3.5 18.1% 22.2% 4.50 -11.1%

BTTS 46.2% 51.3% 1.95 -9.9%

Home O1.5 32.1% 28.6% 3.50 +12.3%

Away O1.5 25.5% 40.8% 2.45 -22.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -21.6%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.2%

D 34% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.0%

#2 1–1✓ 13.2%

#3 0–1 16.5%

#4 1–0 14.3%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nanjing City0.8

Nantong Zhiyun0.9

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NANJING CITY · PPG 1.62

NANTONG ZHIYUN · PPG 1.12

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.12, combined xG 1.72 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nanjing City (H) 31.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +6.8%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -0.9%

Nantong Zhiyun (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nanjing City face Nantong Zhiyun in China - League One on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nanjing City a 31% chance, the draw 34% and Nantong Zhiyun 35%, so Nantong Zhiyun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Nanjing City and 0.9 for Nantong Zhiyun (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nanjing City are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.12 for Nantong Zhiyun. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +12.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Nanjing City vs Nantong Zhiyun Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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