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Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Dalian Huayi Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

PPG 0.88 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Dalian Huayi

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.4%0-24.3%0-32.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.0%1-19.6%1-27.7%1-34.2%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.6%2-26.9%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.2%3-15.1%3-24.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.4%4+-22.8%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 44.4% 2.25 +0.6%

Draw 22.1% 30.8% 3.25 -16.9%

Away win 33.2% 35.1% 2.85 -5.4%

Over 2.5 63.8% 56.5% 1.77 +12.9%

Over 3.5 42.3% 34.5% 2.90 +22.7%

BTTS 64.3% 63.7% 1.57 +0.9%

Home O1.5 49.2% 48.8% 2.05 +0.9%

Away O1.5 48.2% 42.0% 2.38 +14.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -21.6%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob64.3%

H 45% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1✓ 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heilongjiang Lava Spring1.8

Dalian Huayi1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HEILONGJIANG LAVA SPRING · PPG 0.88

DALIAN HUAYI · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Heilongjiang Lava Spring (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +0.6%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -16.9%

Dalian Huayi (A) 33.2%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -5.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heilongjiang Lava Spring face Dalian Huayi in China - League One on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heilongjiang Lava Spring a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Dalian Huayi 33%, so Heilongjiang Lava Spring are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Heilongjiang Lava Spring and 1.6 for Dalian Huayi (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heilongjiang Lava Spring are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.86 for Dalian Huayi. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Dalian Huayi Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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