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Guangzhou E-Power vs Guangxi Hengchen Prediction— China - League One

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 11:30

Guangzhou E-Power

PPG 2.22 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Guangxi Hengchen

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.2%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.4%1-111.0%1-26.4%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.7%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.9%3-15.7%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.8%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 51.3% 1.95 -3.5%

Draw 24.4% 29.9% 3.35 -11.0%

Away win 26.1% 28.6% 3.50 -5.2%

Over 2.5 60.4% 55.6% 1.80 +8.7%

Over 3.5 36.8% 33.3% 3.00 +10.4%

BTTS 59.9% 60.6% 1.65 -1.2%

Home O1.5 49.2% 52.4% 1.91 -6.0%

Away O1.5 35.4% 35.7% 2.80 -0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -21.6%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.9%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0✓ 8.3%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guangzhou E-Power1.8

Guangxi Hengchen1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GUANGZHOU E-POWER · PPG 2.22

GUANGXI HENGCHEN · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guangzhou E-Power (H) 49.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -3.5%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.0%

Guangxi Hengchen (A) 26.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guangzhou E-Power face Guangxi Hengchen in China - League One on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guangzhou E-Power a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Guangxi Hengchen 26%, so Guangzhou E-Power are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Guangzhou E-Power and 1.2 for Guangxi Hengchen (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guangzhou E-Power are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.38 for Guangxi Hengchen. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Guangzhou E-Power vs Guangxi Hengchen Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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