Vasco da Gama vs Sao Paulo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Brazil - Serie A Regular Season - 12 Estádio São Januário· Rio de Janeiro Saturday, April 18, 2026 21:30

Vasco da Gama PPG 1.67

2-1 HIT CS4

Sao Paulo PPG 1.33

Over3.5· +8.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasco da Gama face Sao Paulo in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasco da Gama a 41% chance, the draw 26% and Sao Paulo 33%, so Vasco da Gama are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Vasco da Gama and 1.2 for Sao Paulo (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasco da Gama are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for Sao Paulo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 41.0%

Odds: 2.28 EV: -6.5%

Draw 26.4%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -15.5%

Away 32.6%

Odds: 3.15 EV: +2.7%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.6% Odds: 2.20 +4.7%

Over 3.5 25.9% Odds: 4.20 +8.8%

BTTS 52.3% Odds: 1.85 -3.2%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 2-1 ✔

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Vasco da Gama

1.38

Sao Paulo

1.20

Model SuggestionBTTS -3.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -3.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Over3.5 (+8.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)