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Vasco da Gama vs Sao Paulo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 21:30

Vasco da Gama

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sao Paulo

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.1%0-25.5%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.5%1-112.6%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.2%2-18.7%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.3%3-14.0%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.0% 43.9% 2.28 -6.5%

Draw 26.4% 31.3% 3.20 -15.5%

Away win 32.6% 31.7% 3.15 +2.7%

Over 2.5 47.6% 45.5% 2.20 +4.7%

Over 3.5 25.9% 23.8% 4.20 +8.8%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.3%

H 41% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 10.5%

#3 0–1 9.1%

#4 2–1✓ 8.7%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasco da Gama1.4

Sao Paulo1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VASCO DA GAMA · PPG 1.67

SAO PAULO · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Vasco da Gama (H) 41.0%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -6.5%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.5%

Sao Paulo (A) 32.6%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasco da Gama face Sao Paulo in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasco da Gama a 41% chance, the draw 26% and Sao Paulo 33%, so Vasco da Gama are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Vasco da Gama and 1.2 for Sao Paulo (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasco da Gama are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for Sao Paulo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Vasco da Gama vs Sao Paulo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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