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Chapecoense vs Botafogo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 21:30

Chapecoense

PPG 1.17 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Botafogo

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 83.1% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+66.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.1%0-22.1%0-31.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-02.7%1-15.4%1-25.3%1-33.5%1-4+2.7%2 2-03.5%2-16.9%2-26.8%2-34.5%2-4+3.5%3 3-03.0%3-15.9%3-25.9%3-33.9%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-17.0%4+-26.9%4+-34.6%4+-4+3.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 32.3% 3.10 +58.7%

Draw 18.7% 29.9% 3.35 -37.4%

Away win 30.0% 44.6% 2.24 -32.8%

Over 2.5 83.1% 50.0% 2.00 +66.2%

Over 3.5 66.5% 27.4% 3.65 +142.7%

BTTS 79.5% 56.5% 1.77 +40.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob79.5%

H 51% / xG 2.6-2.0 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 80%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 6.9%

#2 2–2 6.8%

#3 3–1 5.9%

#4 3–2 5.9%

#5 1–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chapecoense2.6

Botafogo2.0

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.1% · O3.5 PROB 66.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHAPECOENSE · PPG 1.17

BOTAFOGO · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.17), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Chapecoense (H) 51.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +58.7%

Draw 18.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -37.4%

Botafogo (A) 30.0%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -32.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chapecoense face Botafogo in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chapecoense a 51% chance, the draw 19% and Botafogo 30%, so Chapecoense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Chapecoense and 2.0 for Botafogo (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 80% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chapecoense are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.00 for Botafogo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +142.7%. This match finished 1-4.

Chapecoense vs Botafogo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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